Opening week home run watch

Through April 7th games, there have been 11 players that have hit three or more home runs. Let’s take a look at all 11 of these players to determine whether we can expect this kind of production to continue throughout the season:

Torii Hunter (4) — Since 2001, Hunter has consistently put up around 26 home runs per year. His high of 31 came in ‘06 and he followed that up with 28 last season. At 32 years old, Hunter seems to fit in nicely with his new Angels teammates and looking for a new career high of 32-plus this season isn’t out of the question.

Chris Young (4) — Young showed in his rookie campaign last year that he’s willing to sacrifice average for power. He smacked 32 bombs in 148 games but hit only .237 in ’07. That trend seems to be continuing this season so don’t expect a dip in his home runs. Young has the potential to be a 30-30 threat year-in, year-out.

Mark Reynolds (4) — Another youngster for Arizona, Reynolds hit 17 round-trippers in his debut season last year. Only 24, Reynolds’ power is obviously there but it’s hard to project where his final homer tally will land. We’re looking at somewhere around the 25 range for a full season.

Carlos Lee (3) — One of the Astros’ big boppers hasn’t shown any sign of decline in recent years so there’s no reason to think it’ll happen this time around. Lee knocked 32 balls out of the park last year and hasn’t hit less than 31 home runs since ’02. Always a member near the top of the leader board, look for a 35 home run output this season.

Pat Burrell (3) — Pat Burrell is a wild card at the plate, though his home run totals have remained fairly consistent. His last three years, Burrell hit 32, 29 and 30 HRs respectively. With the benefit of playing in the Phillies home, which allows the most long balls in the league, Burrell’s power production should stick to that area if not increase.

Rick Ankiel (3) — It’s hard to argue that Ankiel can’t keep this power production up. He’s essentially a rookie at the plate and his 11 jacks in 47 games last year project out to around 36 in a full season. We’re betting on a bit of a falloff from Ankiel to the 20-25 range.

Chase Utley (3) — Like Burrell, Utley has the benefit of playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Having exceptional talent doesn’t hurt either. Utley has hit 28, 32 and 22 HRs in his three full seasons and with Ryan Howard to back him up, Utley will see plenty of pitches to hit. We expect another 30-HR season.

Derrek Lee (3) — Health is the question here. Lee hit 46 home runs in ’05 but injuries have greatly reduced his power numbers since. Still, his history speaks in favor of a return to the 30-home run plateau.

Justin Upton (3) — In 28 at bats this year, Upton has already cranked more home runs than he did in 140 ABs last year (2). Upton’s talent remains raw and at only 20 years old, we don’t expect much more than 15 home runs out of him this year.

Ben Broussard (3) — Three of Broussard’s first four hits this season have been home runs. Combine that with the fact that he hasn’t hit more than 21 home runs in a season in his career and we think this number will likely slow to around 15-18 ding dongs. He’ll have to bring up that .190 average by looking for hits outside the long ball.

Xavier Nady (3) — One of the first week’s most valuable players, Nady has been teetered on that 20-home run brink throughout his short career. Injuries have taken their toll in the past (never played more than 130 games) and could again hinder his progress. Still, we’re eyeing Nady for a breakout season and perhaps 25-30 home runs.

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