St. Louis Cardinals 2008 Preview

Getting a read on the Cardinals is especially difficult coming into the 2008 season. The depth and extent of the evolution relies on the answers to a number of questions. Integral pieces of the 2006 championship team — including Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, Scott Rolen, Juan Encarnacion and Chris Carpenter — will not be on the Opening Day roster. Meanwhile, the club has numerous uncertainties to address. Will Adam Kennedy rebound from an off year? Is Mark Mulder fit and able? Is Rick Ankiel for real? Can Matt Clement resurrect his career? Will the rehabbing Carpenter be ready by midseason? As always, starting pitching will be critical. Otherwise, the Cardinals must rebuild a batting order around slugging linchpin Albert Pujols. The team must improve a defense that ranked 15th among 16 NL teams in ’07, and it must hope for a repeat of its strong bullpen performance. As the Cardinals demonstrated with their 83-win championship, anything is possible. But on paper, the Cardinals have to be considered a second division entry.

Rotation
Mulder underwent another surgery to fix his troublesome shoulder. He has not been himself for two seasons now. A best-case scenario has Carpenter — who missed all but one start of 2007 — returning from his elbow surgery by midseason. If that happens, the outlook changes dramatically. Adam Wainwright returned as a starter last season and won 14 games. He appears ready to pick up where he left off last season. Braden Looper won 12 in a successful shift from the bullpen, but has struggled mightily in the spring. Joel Pineiro showed enough as a late-season acquisition to get a new contract and rotation spot, but begins the year injured. Clement, who missed all of last season and most of ’06, hopes for a revival after shoulder surgery. Anthony Reyes will get a shot to prove his 2–14 record was a fluke. Cardinal fans are tiring of trying to figure out the promising righthander. Kyle Lohse has earned a place in the rotation. This rotation is of patchwork quality until (hopefully not if) Carpenter and Mulder return.

Statistician
1	Home runs Chris Duncan hit off a left-handed pitcher last year. He hit 20 off righties.
31	The number of saves for closer prospect Kenny Maiques, which set a franchise record at the Cardinals’ Quad Cities Class A affiliate.
2	Complete games tossed by the Cardinals’ pitching staff last year.
10	The number of errors by rookie infielder Brendan Ryan.
5.04	ERA of the Cardinals’ starters last year, the highest rotation ERA in franchise history in a non-strike season.

Bullpen 
This was the Cardinals’ best asset in 2007, and most of it returns. Closer Jason Isringhausen has lost some velocity at age 35, but 32 saves in 34 opportunities proved he could still do the job when healthy. Ryan Franklin was the best setup man in the league until fatigue swelled his ERA to 3.04 in his last few appearances. Russ Springer (8–1) had a terrific ’07, and the Cardinals have two lefthanders — Ron Villone and Randy Flores — for specialty work.

Middle Infield 
Of the team’s 121 errors in 2007, 49 were spread among the middle infielders. They hope to upgrade that department with the addition of Cesar Izturis, who projects as the replacement for Eckstein. Izturis won the 2004 Gold Glove at the position with the Dodgers, but his career has been fragmented since. Second baseman Adam Kennedy enters the second part of a three-year contract, hoping to rebound from a season in which he batted .219 and played only 87 games. Aaron Miles and Brendan Ryan will compete for backup space.

Corners 
Pujols did not repeat as the NL’s Gold Glove first baseman in ’07, but many feel he has the best range and arm at the position. Offensively, he batted .327, and his run-producing totals of 32 home runs and 103 RBIs actually represented career lows. An elbow injury may ultimately end his season prematurely, but Pujols didn’t allow the injury to limit his production in spring training. A potentially volatile situation was avoided  with the mid-January trade of Rolen to Toronto for Troy Glaus. Bad vibes between La Russa and Rolen had become public, and neither of the two parties appeared interested in making ammends. Glaus combined to hit 75 home runs in 2005 and ’06, but he was limited to 20 in an injury shortened ’07 season. He had surgery in mid-September to correct a nerve problem in his left foot related to chronic plantar fasciitis, and there is a sense that his big body is starting to betray him. The Cardinals hope that Glaus will be motivated in what amounts to a contract year; he can opt out of his current deal following the 2008 season.

Outfield 
Edmonds, a fixture in center field for eight seasons in St. Louis, was traded to San Diego over the winter. The Cardinals plan to give promising Colby Rasmus an opportunity to play everyday sometime this season. Scouts believe he has superstar potential, and he will most likely surface in St. Louis this summer. He has yet to play at the AAA level, so more seasoning is probably best. Roy Hobbs — a.k.a. Rick Ankiel — pounded 11 homers and had 39 RBIs in 47 games after his callup. He’ll man center until Rasmus is ready. Skip Schumaker batted .333 in 88 games, and Ryan Ludwick (14 home runs) also can play center or right. Left fielder Chris Duncan is a work in progress defensively and must rebound from a poor second half in which he batted .209 with only five of his 21 homers.

Catching 
Yadier Molina is a weapon defensively, with the best arm among catchers in all of Major League baseball. He gunned down 54 percent (27-of-50) of would-be base-stealers last season, and his .275 batting average was also a marked improvement over the .216 he posted in 2006. The club signed veteran Jason LaRue for depth, and he could provide pop off the bench.

Bench 
Outfielder Brian Barton, a Rule 5 pickup, will get a chance to win playing time. Bench players like Ludwick and Schumaker could play semi-regularly in an outfield platoon situation. The switch-hitting Miles provides versatility in the infield

Statline Most Innings, No Wild Pitches, 2006-07
1.	Braden Looper	248.1
2.	Scott Baker	227
3.	Rafael Betancourt	136
4.	Chad Bradford	126.2
5.	Kyle Kendrick	121

Management 
The Cardinals underwent some restructuring during the winter. The club parted ways with general manager Walt Jocketty not long after the season ended. Jocketty’s assistant John Mozeliak was promoted to the GM seat. He inherits the job during an awkward period for the Cardinals, who have much of their salary budget tied up in a handful of veteran players. But Mozeliak has one thing Jocketty didn’t have — a working relationship with statistics-oriented Jeff Luhnow, who has risen to vice president of amateur scouting and player procurement. Many thought La Russa would depart in the wake of Jocketty’s dismissal, but the future Hall of Fame skipper signed on for two more years, adding to a 12-year tenure.

Final Analysis 
If everything falls perfectly into place, Mulder and Carpenter will be in the rotation by July, Glaus returns to his pre-injury form, Rasmus will be major league-ready by June, Kennedy will bounce back and the club will be in the playoff hunt. But it is hard to imagine so many “ifs” landing on the favorable side of the ledger. These things are certain — La Russa will get the most from his roster, Pujols will provide production and the Cardinals will draw some three million fans. But this could be the start of a down cycle for one of baseball’s best franchises.

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Difference Maker

From 2001-05, Mark Mulder won 88 games, an average of better than 17 wins per season. He was the winningest lefthander in the game during that span. But over the past two seasons, Mulder has made only 20 starts and brandished a 6–10 record. His unsuccessful return from shoulder surgery last summer included three starts, a 12.27 ERA and more surgery. Now Mulder, 30, will try it again. If he has mended well and can recapture his form, he can dramatically alter a pitching rotation that lacks star quality and will be without Carpenter for at least the first half.

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Beyond the Box Score

September swoon  Rick Ankiel batted .358 with nine homers and 29 RBIs in his first 23 games last season — sparking the Cardinals to within a game of first place. But on Sept. 7, the New York Daily News reported that Ankiel received shipments of human growth hormone in 2004. Perhaps not coincidentally, the controversial piece of news coincided with a slump for Ankiel. Over his final 24 games, he batted .220 with two homers, and the Cardinals faded.

Family affair  The Cardinals signed pitcher Ron Flores over the winter. He is the brother of incumbent lefthander Randy Flores. The club also purchased the contract of outfielder Chris Gibson from the Gateway Grizzlies of the Independent Frontier League. Gibson is the son of Cardinals Hall of Famer Bob Gibson. Chris Duncan’s older brother, Shelley Duncan, had seven homers and 17 RBIs in 34 games after a late-season promotion to the Yankees last season. Both are the sons of Cardinals pitching coach and former major league catcher Dave Duncan.

Go for the gold  If center field hopeful Colby Rasmus starts at Class AAA and does not appear in the majors before the Olympics, his performance in the international tournament in Taiwan will make him a prime candidate to join Team USA in the Beijing Summer Games. Batting leadoff in Taiwan, Rasmus led the U.S. team with extra-base hits, walks and hits. He had a hit in every game and slugged .706.

Juan gone  It appears unlikely outfielder Juan Encarnacion will re-join the Cardinals in 2008, and his baseball career is in jeopardy. At last report, Encarnacion had regained only 20/400 vision in his left eye since being hit with a foul line drive off the bat of Aaron Miles at Busch Stadium on Aug. 31.

Packing them in  The Cardinals set a franchise record for attendance last season during their second year at the new Busch Stadium. The team drew 3,552,180 through the gates and averaged 43,853 per game.

On the decline?  Albert Pujols must be losing it (wink, wink). He finished ninth in the National League MVP balloting over the winter — his career worst showing. In seven seasons, it is the first time Pujols has finished out of the top four in voting.

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