Milwaukee Brewers 2008 Preview

Last season, four Brewers appeared on the daytime soap The Young and The Restless, a title that aptly describes the situation in Milwaukee. This is a young, talented team, but Brewer fans are growing restless after a 25-year playoff drought. To reach the postseason, Milwaukee needs improved pitching and defense to complement one of baseball’s most potent offenses.

Rotation
No Milwaukee starter won more than 12 games a year ago, and no starters were added in the offseason, yet the Brewers appear to boast one of the NL’s strongest rotations. Ben Sheets’ promise still exceeds his production, but when healthy last year he was pitching near the highest level of his seven-year career. Injuries have limited him to 41 starts the past two seasons. Milwaukee’s best pitcher may be Yovani Gallardo, who exceeded high expectations and dazzled as a rookie last year. Gallardo went 3–1 in September with 21 straight scoreless innings, but had knee surgery in February, which will delay his season. Jeff Suppan eats up innings just as the Brewers expected; he was the only Milwaukee starter to top 200 innings, though he pitched just .500 ball thanks to a midseason swoon. Carlos Villanueva likely will be the No. 4 starter. Though still unproven, Villanueva emerged as one of Milwaukee’s most consistent pitchers. The fifth spot is where things get interesting, with Chris Capuano (two years removed from an All-Star berth), Dave Bush (who led the staff with 134 strikeouts), Claudio Vargas, and Manny Parra battling. Midway through spring training it appeared that Bush had the edge with Parra getting a few starts until Gallardo’s knee is completely healed.

Statistician
0	Wins by Brewer starters Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Capuano from June 29 to Aug. 28.
.895	Ryan Braun’s fielding percentage, lowest for a big league third baseman in 10 years.
1.36	Rookie Yovani Gallardo’s ERA in five September starts (33 IP).
8	Grand slams for the Brewers in 2007, tied with Colorado for tops in the Majors.
12	Consecutive losses for Chris Capuano, the longest losing streak in MLB in ’07.
25	Age of J.J. Hardy and Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee’s oldest starting infielders.

Bullpen 
Fans blamed the Brewer bullpen for much of last season’s collapse (Milwaukee blew an MLB-high 16 games after leading by three runs or more), and the best pitcher from that pen is gone, so whether Brewer relievers will put out fires or merely add more gas could determine how far Milwaukee will go. Eric Gagne, fresh off a meltdown in Boston and an outing in the Mitchell Report, inherits closer duties from Francisco Cordero, who rode a franchise-record 44-save season into a rich contract in Cincinnati. As bad as Gagne was in Boston, many forget that he blew only one save as a Ranger in the season’s first half. Maddeningly inconsistent Derrick Turnbow will set the table. Brewer fans took out their frustrations on Turnbow last year, which was mostly unfair, but a look at the fireballer’s up-and-down monthly ERAs shows why it was easy to turn on him: 2.19, 7.84, 1.93, 6.10, 2.92, 9.35 from April through September. Lefty Brian Shouse will once again be called on for spot duty, while veterans Salomon Torres, Randy Choate, and David Riske are there to eat innings.

Middle Infield
Second baseman Rickie Weeks and shortstop J.J. Hardy were both born in the fall of 1982, the last time the Brewers made a run to the playoffs. There’s plenty of reason to believe these guys can help them get back there. Hardy’s always been known for his steady glove, but it was his bat that turned heads last year. The hard-swinging Weeks made dramatic improvement in the field but struggled at the plate for much of the season, bothered by a nagging wrist injury. He came to life in September (nine homers, 14 RBIs), and hopes are 2008 will be his breakout year at the plate.

Corners 
Prince Fielder has emerged as one of the elite sluggers in the game. The first baseman clubbed an NL-high 50 homers (at age 23, he was the youngest player in big league history to do so) and also led the league with a .618 slugging percentage. Just as important, he’s emerged as the team’s emotional leader after only two full seasons. As many expected, Bill Hall worked so hard to make the transition from shortstop to center field that his offense suffered; after hitting 35 homers in ’06, he slumped badly in 2007. Well, it appears he will be back in the infield. The Brewers signed veteran Mike Cameron in mid-January, shifting would-be third baseman Ryan Braun to left field and Hall to third base. 

Outfield
As fearsome as Fielder is from the left side of the plate, Braun is just as productive from the right side. The NL Rookie of the Year wasn’t called up until late May, but he still managed to put up monster numbers. He set a MLB rookie record with a .634 slugging percentage, hit .450 off lefties and .328 with runners in scoring position. On the flipside, he was arguably the worst defensive infielder in the major leagues (26 errors in 113 games), so his move to left field should strengthen the Brewers’ overall defense. Right fielder Corey Hart doesn’t get the attention of the slugging young infielders, but he is just as important in the Brewer lineup. In his first full season, Hart displayed both speed and power and emerged as a favorite among teammates. Cameron slumped to .242 last year in San Diego, but he hit 21 home runs, drove in 78 and stole 18 bases. He will be suspended for the first 25 games of the season for testing positive for a banned stimulant.

Catching
Veteran catcher Jason Kendall was picked up in the offseason and will be expected to carry the load. Kendall is the only catcher to have started at least 130 games in each of the last five seasons. His production is another matter: he threw out only 18 percent of basestealers last season and hit .242. Still, the Brewers were impressed by his .375 career on-base percentage. Mike Rivera and journeyman Eric Munson will compete for the backup spot.

Bench
Nothing special here. No Brewer pinch-hitter hit more than one homer last year, and it’s doubtful there will be much more production from the pine this season. There are plenty of reserve outfield candidates — Gabe Gross, Tony Gwynn Jr., Joe Dillon. Light-hitting Craig Counsell returns to shepherd the young infielders.

Statline Most Triples by a 260-Pound-Plus Player
1.	Prince Fielder, 2007	2
2t.	Prince Fielder, 2006	1
2t.	Calvin Pickering, 2004	1
2t.	Jumbo Brown, 1928	1
2t.	Garland Buckeye, 1927	1

Management 
Doug Melvin and his scouting staff have done a remarkable job collecting young talent, and owner Mark Attanasio has shown a willingness to spend money. Manager Ned Yost took significant heat as the Brewers collapsed last year, and he’ll be under the gun this year. Considering the youth of the lineup and the meltdown among the veterans of the pitching staff, the criticism of Yost was somewhat overdone, and he deserves a chance to lead this team to new heights.
 
Final Analysis
After decades of mediocrity (at best), the Brewers are for real. Their core of powerful young hitters is as good as it gets, and the starting rotation has the potential to be well above average. Still, good teams win with pitching and defense, Milwaukee’s biggest weaknesses. If Sheets stays healthy, Gagne returns to form, and the defense improves even just a little bit, the Brewers could return to the postseason for the first time since 1982.

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Difference Maker

Frustrated at various points in his career by injuries and lousy run support, Ben Sheets has never put up the kind of numbers Brewer fans expect from a pitcher of his ability. Sheets hasn’t made more than 30 starts in a season since 2004 and has never won more than 12 games. Still, the three-time All-Star is the leader of the starting rotation, and his mere presence, when healthy, energizes this young team. To take pressure off the youngster, Yovani Gallardo, and the crafty vet, Jeff Suppan, Sheets must stay off the DL and stake his claim as the Brewers’ ace.

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Beyond the Box Score

Sunrise, sunset Milwaukee’s performance in day games and night games was like, well, day and night in 2007. The Brewers were 59–48 in night games (fourth-best in the NL) but just 24–31 in day games, fifth-worst in baseball. Slugger Prince Fielder best embodied the team’s split personality, hitting .316 with 41 homers under the lights but just .230 with nine homers under the sun.

There’s no place like home Topping the Brewers’ day-night schizophrenia was the difference in the team’s production at home vs. its output on the road. The Brewers had the NL’s best home record, at 51–30 but the third-worst road record, 32–49. Milwaukee certainly had reason to feel comfortable at home, with a franchise-record 2.87 million fans coming out to Miller Park.

No workhorses here In order to avoid another late-season bullpen meltdown, Milwaukee will need to get more innings from its starting pitchers. Brewer starters made only 33 starts of seven innings or more in ’07, and Jeff Suppan was the only starter to log 200 innings pitched. Suppan (one) and Ben Sheets (two) were the only Brewer hurlers to toss complete games.

Going, going, gone … Prince Fielder led the NL with 50 homers, and the Brewers set a franchise record with 231 round-trippers, but the most amazing longball number for Milwaukee was three, as in three consecutive homers to lead off a game in Cincinnati on Sept. 9. When Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Ryan Braun led off the game with consecutive homers, the Brewers became the first team in major league history to lead off the top of the first with three straight home runs.

Revolving door Gone is Francisco Cordero, who set a Brewer record with 44 saves a year ago. Eric Gagne is set to assume closer duties, but finding a new stopper is nothing new for the Brewers. Six different relievers have led the team in saves over the last eight years — Bob Wickman, Curtis Leskanic, Mike DeJean, Dan Kolb, Derrick Turnbow, and Cordero.

Fundamental flaw Shoddy infield defense has plagued the Brewers the last two seasons. Rickie Weeks has made tremendous strides at second base (cutting his errors nearly in half in ’07), but Ryan Braun (26) and Prince Fielder (14) both led the NL in errors at their positions.

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