Cincinnati Reds 2008 Preview

In order to solve the Reds’ eighth-inning woes from 2007, Cincinnati general manager Wayne Krivsky addressed the ninth inning, signing former Brewers closer Francisco Cordero to a four-year, $46-million deal. Opponents scored 123 total runs in the eighth inning in 2007, so any improvement could put the Reds into thick of the wide-open National League Central race.

Rotation 
With Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo at the top of the rotation, the Reds feel solid two days a week — but the rest could be a major question. The Reds entered spring with only six starters with major league experience on their 40-man roster, and three of those — Bobby Livingston, Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez — had combined for only 36 big league starts, one fewer than Matt Belisle’s 37. The Reds auditioned Josh Fogg, who started the Rockies’ playoff game with San Diego last October. Midway through the spring, Volquez and rookie Johnny Cueto had earned spots behind Harang and Arroyo. Fogg pitched well enough to earn the fifth spot when needed, although Belisle may be pitching coach Dick Pole’s choice. After all the tryouts during the spring, fortunately for the Reds, they know what they’re getting with Harang and Arroyo. Harang is finally getting the recognition his numbers would suggest he deserves. Following his second consecutive 16-win season, Harang finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting. In 2006, Harang led the NL in strikeouts and tied for the league lead in wins but didn’t receive a single Cy Young vote. Last season, he topped his strikeout total from the previous year with 218 and lowered his ERA slightly to 3.73. Arroyo has thrown more than 200 innings in each of the last three seasons, including the last two with the Reds. Although Arroyo was a 15-game loser in 2007, he led the team with 22 quality starts and was the victim of a staff-high five blown saves. Belisle struggled with consistency in 2007 but managed to stay healthy, making 30 starts.  

Statistician
2	Number of winning seasons by new manager Dusty Baker since the Reds’ last winning season, 2000.
.283	The difference between Aaron Harang’s winning percentage (.727) and the Reds’ (.444), the second-biggest discrepancy among starters in the majors in 2007.
.307	Edwin Encarnacion’s batting average after being recalled from Class AAA in May.
3	Times Adam Dunn has finished with at least 100 RBIs, 100 walks and 100 runs scored. The only other player in Reds history to accomplish the feat is Joe Morgan.
231	Home runs hit at Great America Ball Park, second highest total in baseball.

Bullpen 
With the addition of Cordero, Krivsky is banking on David Weathers repeating his 2007 season in the eighth inning instead of the ninth. The Reds’ eighth-inning woes were central to their 28 blown saves and National League-worst 5.13 bullpen ERA. Rule 5 pickup Jared Burton showed promise and helped nail down the eighth inning late in the year. The team hopes veteran Mike Stanton isn’t as bad as he was in 2007 (1–3, 5.93 ERA), and that Jeremy Affeldt can be a stopped from the left side. In all, the bullpen has to improve, because it would be hard to get too much worse than it was last season.

Middle Infield 
When they were together, shortstop Alex Gonzalez and second baseman Brandon Phillips teamed up to form one of the best double-play combinations in baseball. Gonzalez, signed as a free agent before 2007, was supposed to solidify the Reds’ defense, but he was sidelined by a combination of injuries and family concerns. Gonzalez was limited to 110 games and still had more than twice as many errors as the season before (16 to seven). Gonzalez also found the homer-friendly Great American Ball Park to his liking, hitting 16 home runs while batting .272, his best mark since his rookie season in 1999. Gonzalez will begin the season on the DL with a fracture in his knee. Phillips made a case for both the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove. He became only the third Red to record 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in the same season, finishing with 30 homers and 32 steals. He also led NL second basemen in fielding percentage (.990) and total chances (782).

Corners 
Edwin Encarnacion was sent down to Class AAA in May, but upon his return to the big leagues he re-established himself as the Reds’ third baseman of the future. He ended up leading the club in hitting with a .289 average in just over 500 at bats. Prospect Joey Votto played well in his September call-up, but fellow left-handed hitting first baseman Scott Hatteberg was just too good (hitting .310 in platoon duties) and too cheap (the club exercised a $1.85 million option on the veteran) for the Reds to let go. Hatteberg could have trade value either before the season or at the deadline for a contender wanting a consistent, professional hitter and positive clubhouse influence.

Outfield 
The corners are established — Adam Dunn in left and Ken Griffey Jr. in right — but the question for the second spring in a row is, who will man center? The answer, as it was a year ago, could be Ryan Freel for the time being. Freel opened 2007 as the Reds’ center fielder but was quickly displaced by Hamilton. But Hamilton was traded to the Rangers in December. Top prospect Jay Bruce should take over at some point this season. Freel is valuable as a utilty player who can play seven positions well.

Catching 
David Ross struggled mightily at the plate in 2007 but was very good behind it, throwing out 43 percent of would-be base stealers. Switch-hitter Javier Valentin’s bat is too potent to keep on the bench, but too valuable as a pinch hitter to play every day.

Bench 
In his fourth organization in four seasons, infielder Jeff Keppinger may have found a home in Cincinnati. Keppinger hit .332 in 67 games for the Reds. He also was solid defensively, playing all four infield spots and both corner outfield positions. Juan Castro is valuable with the glove at second, third and short. If Norris Hopper fails to win the center field job, he’ll still be a valuable bat off the bench. Hopper, who can play all three outfield spots, may be the best bunter in baseball. If Bruce establishes himself as the center fielder, moving to Freel to the bench makes it one of the deepest and flexible in baseball.

Statline Most Holds, Last 50 Years
1.	Mike Stanton	267
2.	Jesse Orosco	188
3.	Paul Quantrill	185
4.	Dan Plesac	183
5.	Mike Jackson	182

Management 
The Reds’ hiring of Baker was a sign of Bob Castellini’s desire to make his third season as owner the team’s first winning season since 2000. Baker brings instant credibility to the clubhouse and the message that the Reds are looking to win immediately.

Final Analysis 
Although the addition of Cordero was the Reds’ only splashy move in free agency, it’s enough to improve the team immediately. And in the National League Central, every notch above .500 is a step closer to the postseason.

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Difference Maker

After converting barely over 50 percent of their save opportunities last season, the Reds addressed a major weakness by signing free agent reliever Francisco Cordero, who saved 44 games (in 51 chances) last season for division rival Milwaukee. The addition of Cordero, a hard-throwing righty who struck out 86 in 63.1 innings in 2007, will allow the Reds to return David Weathers to the role of setup man. Strengthening the back end of their bullpen should be enough to make the Reds a factor in the wide open NL Central.

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Beyond the Box Score

Contact hitter Reds first baseman Joey Votto started slowly in 2007, batting just .192 in April at Class AAA Louisville. After trying just about everything else, Votto went to the eye doctor. The prescription was contact lenses. After getting fitted with contacts, Votto finished the Bats’ season with a .294 average and 22 home runs. He hit .321 with four homers in a September call-up. After the season, Votto had laser surgery to correct his vision.

Give him a hit With a left-handed pitcher on the mound and a runner on first, there was no secret that outfielder Norris Hopper would bunt. In that situation, Hopper was adept at pushing his bunt between the pitcher and first baseman for a base hit. Hopper finished the season with 17 bunt singles and another 20 infield hits.

Nuxy The Reds will wear a black patch with the word “Nuxy” on their right sleeves this season honoring former Reds pitcher and broadcaster Joe Nuxhall, who died in November following a long bout with cancer.

Big bats The Reds could put together a decent outfield from their pitching staff. Starter Bobby Livingston had four hits in a game against Atlanta last season, while relievers Marcus McBeth and Jon Coutlangus both played center field at the University of South Carolina. McBeth was also a kicker for the Gamecocks’ football team.

Good looks Reliever Jared Burton kept himself busy during the season trying out different facial hair combinations. During spring training, the Rule 5 selection sported mutton chop sideburns to honor former Braves closer Kerry Ligtenberg, who was a non-roster invitee to the Reds’ camp. He finished the season with hair under his chin and jaw in a wedge shape that he dubbed “the stealth bomber.”

Roll Tide Reliever David Weathers may get paid to wear red, but he’d rather be wearing crimson. A University of Alabama fan, Weathers not only kept a Shaun Alexander jersey in his locker, but he also wore a Bear Bryant-style houndstooth hat when warming up on Crimson Tide game days.

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