Washington Nationals 2008 Preview

The Washington Nationals aren’t yet postseason contenders, despite taking a step forward last season. Avoiding the National League East cellar with a fourth-place finish was important, but they still lack the hitting depth and starting pitching needed to overtake the big-spending clubs in their division. A winning season, their stated goal, would be another positive step.

Rotation
Washington didn’t do much to upgrade a rotation whose 5.11 ERA ranked second-to-last in the NL in 2007. Instead, the Nationals stuck with their young, unproven arms. None of the pitchers in the projected rotation has sustained success for a full season in the majors, and they combined for only 22 big league wins in 2007. Shawn Hill, the No. 1 starter, is coming off ulnar nerve decompression surgery on his pitching forearm, and Jason Bergmann has shown potential only in spurts. They lead the rotation into Washington’s new ballpark, which likely won’t be as pitcher-friendly as RFK Stadium. Pitching coach Randy St. Claire has been heralded for working wonders with last year’s group, and he’ll have to continue in order for the Nationals to reach .500. Odalis Perez is in the best shape he’s been in for several years and will earn a spot. Tim Redding is likely to begin the season in the rotation, and youngster John Lannan has good enough stuff to pitch his way into the rotation early in the season. Matt Chico is another young arm who should be a part of the rotation in the future.

Statistician
4.15	Washington’s runs-per-game average in 2007, the worst in baseball.
43	Wins by Nationals starting pitchers last season, third-fewest in the majors.
14	Major league games in which Lastings Milledge has played center field.
.308	Combined on-base percentage for Washington’s leadoff hitters last season, worst in the majors.
0	Left-handed relievers on the Nationals’ 40-man roster.
588	Pitching changes the Nationals made last season, an all-time major league record.

Bullpen 
The Nationals kept their best asset intact during the offseason, opting to keep closer Chad Cordero and setup man Jon Rauch at the back end of a bullpen that ranked fourth in the NL last season with a 3.81 ERA. Cordero lost some steam on his fastball near the end of 2007, and he led the majors with nine blown saves. However, he is still one of the most effective closers in the game when his slider and fastball are working. Rauch’s eight wins led the team last season, and his fastball is powerful enough to earn him the closer’s role if Washington were to deal Cordero. One glaring problem with the bullpen is the lack of lefthanders. The Nationals don’t have a lefty reliever on the 40-man roster.  

Middle Infield 
How Cristian Guzman, Ronnie Belliard and Felipe Lopez coexist will be one of the most intriguing storylines of the season. It appears that Lopez is the odd man out — with Guzman at shortstop and Belliard at second base — following his worst year in three full big league seasons. The Nationals believe 2007 was just an off-year for Lopez, and they are counting on him to bounce back. He has to be on the field to do that, though, and playing time could be scarce. Guzman batted so well before a torn left thumb ligament limited his availability that he is the team’s best candidate to lead off. Belliard was one of Washington’s biggest surprises last season, and he has solidified a starting role. Regardless of who plays, the Nationals desperately need improved offensive production from this group.

Corners
Who’s on first? That’s the multi-million-dollar question in Washington. Dmitri Young is coming off an All-Star season and is scheduled to make $5 million in 2008, yet he could be replaced by Nick Johnson. Johnson, who didn’t play last year while rehabilitating a broken right femur, could provide some much-needed power behind third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. Johnson, who is also a defensive upgrade over Young, is running as well as before the injury and is agile around first base. Meanwhile, Zimmerman, the franchise’s cornerstone, is Washington’s only sure thing. His RBI total dipped last year because the Nos. 1 and 2 hitters struggled to get on base. He played defense worthy of a Gold Glove, but he could be more consistently accurate on throws to first.

Outfield 
Washington traded for Wily Mo Pena last August and Lastings Milledge in November with hopes that both would flourish offensively when given 500 at-bats. Pena showed signs of such promise after joining the Nationals, averaging a home run every 16.6 at-bats. He’s not the most athletic or refined left fielder, but his defensive shortcomings don’t yet trump his offensive upside. Pena will begin the season on the DL giving Elijah Dukes the chance to play everyday early in the year. Milledge can return to his natural center field position after moving to the corners for two seasons behind New York Mets star Carlos Beltran. If he can hit with the prowess that made him the 12th overall pick in 2003, it would be an enormous boost. Austin Kearns is entrenched in right field, but he must rebound from a down year at the plate.

Catching 
It will be interesting to see whether free agent Paul Lo Duca is a significant offensive upgrade over Brian Schneider, who was traded to the New York Mets. Lo Duca’s career numbers are better than Schneider’s, and Lo Duca hit .318 in 2006 and 37 points better than Schneider last season. But Lo Duca regressed offensively in 2007. Both players had 54 RBIs, and Schneider had a higher OBP. The Nationals need Lo Duca, 35, to hit like he did in 2006, because he’s a defensive downgrade from Schneider. Lo Duca’s caught-stealing percentage (23.4) last season was much worse than Schneider’s (31.2). Backup Jesus Flores showed potential both offensively and defensively last season as a Rule 5 pick, but his grooming for the full-time role may continue at AA where he can get regular at-bats. Johnny Estrada will share time with Lo Duca.

Bench 
Washington’s bench is the best it has been since the franchise moved to town before the 2005 season. The Nationals have the rare luxury of calling a reigning All-Star off the bench in Young. Lopez is a speedy switch-hitter whom manager Manny Acta could plug into either middle infield position late in games. Aaron Boone and Rob Mackowiak are both capable hitters and versatile fielders whom Acta could use almost anywhere on defense. With Estrada around, Washington will hardly experience any drop off on Lo Duca’s days off.

Statline Fewest Runs Scored, Last Decade
1.	Nationals/Expos	6.909
2.	Pirates	7.044
3.	Rays	7,120
4.	Brewers	7,234
5t.	Marlins	7,264
5t.	Padres	7,264

Management 
Acta is one of the rising stars among managers, as evidenced by how he steadied the Nationals last season after a 9–25 start. He stayed patient and coaxed a 64–64 record in the final 128 games from his young team. St. Claire was largely responsible for how Washington’s unheralded starting rotation survived last season, and he will work with the young arms again. Hitting coach Lenny Harris’ arrival last season coincided with the start of the season-ending 64–64 run, during which the Nationals hit .264, as opposed to .227 beforehand.
 
Final Analysis 
While Nationals fans pine for a contender, they will have to be satisfied in 2008 by Washington’s sparkling new downtown stadium, because the team itself isn’t ready to contend. The Nationals lack quality starting pitching depth and haven’t proven they can score sufficiently and consistently. But while fans wait for top prospects to develop, there are enough pieces at the major league level to keep them excited and interested. How players such as Zimmerman, Pena, Milledge and Hill progress will go a long way toward determining the success of the Nationals in 2008 and beyond. A winning season would be another important step forward.

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Difference Maker

Nick Johnson’s attempted comeback from a broken right femur was the top storyline of spring training. He batted a team-high .290 with 23 home runs and 77 RBIs in 2006 before getting hurt on Sept. 23, and he missed all of last season. A successful return would likely send All-Star Dmitri Young to the bench and provide some power to a lineup that hasn’t had much. But whether Johnson, 29, can regain his hitting form after sitting out 2007 is in doubt. If he can, he could become GM Jim Bowden’s third Comeback Player of the Year (Young in 2007 and Ron Gant in 1995).

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Beyond the Box Score

Friendlier confines
Nationals hitters are understandably eager to leave RFK Stadium behind. In three seasons at RFK, the Nationals hit 168 homers at home compared to 236 on the road. The outfield fence at their new ballpark is three feet closer to home plate in left-center field, 10 feet closer in right-center and seven feet closer in straightaway center. On the flip side, Washington’s pitchers may find themselves longing for the days at rundown RFK. Their collective home ERA of 4.08 last season was in stark contrast to the road mark of 5.10. The Nationals surrendered 33 more home runs on the road than at home last season.

Capital offense
Washington can’t blame its stadium for all of its offensive woes. The Nationals’ offense was one of the worst in baseball last season — home and away. In NL rankings restricted to road performance, Washington was 12th out of 16 in average, 10th in on-base percentage and 13th in slugging. Overall, the Nats ranked last in the majors in runs scored and last in the NL in home runs.

Dmitri’s diet
All-Star first baseman Dmitri Young, diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes in November 2006, admittedly did a poor job of managing his condition during last season. The daily grind made it difficult for him to eat properly, among other things. During the offseason, he hired a personal chef to help him eat well.

Dukes of D.C.
The Nationals traded for oft-troubled outfielder Elijah Dukes at the winter meetings in December. Dukes, 23, has a rap sheet that includes domestic violence and marijuana possession, but Washington hopes a change of scenery can help the former Tampa Bay Ray turn his life around. The upside for the Nationals is huge, as Dukes has the potential to be the type of power hitter they lack. He could struggle to find playing time, though, because the Nationals are committed to giving Wily Mo Pena and Lastings Milledge a chance to play every day.

Not-so-funny bone
Starting right-handed pitchers Shawn Hill and John Patterson are each coming off surgery to decompress the ulnar nerve in their right forearm. The surgery involved the removal of blood vessels that constricted the nerve and caused discomfort. Hill is expected to lead the rotation, while Patterson will fight for a spot after starting on Opening Day last season. Injuries have limited Patterson to 15 starts over the last two seasons.

Staying single
No Washington pitcher recorded double-digit wins or losses last season, the first time that has ever happened in a non strike-shortened season lasting at least 110 games. Matt Chico’s seven wins were the most by any starter.

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