Philadelphia Phillies 2008 Preview

Jimmy Rollins boldly proclaimed that the Phillies were the team to beat in the National League East last season, and his crystal ball proved right when Philadelphia ended a 14-year playoff drought with its first division title since 1993. “I don’t plan on giving up that title of NL East champions,” the reigning league MVP says. “There’s going to be fireworks. I plan another celebration, but not just one.” Anchored by Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley — all of whom finished in the top eight in MVP voting in 2007 — the Phils have the lineup strength to win the division again. But do they have the pitching?

Rotation 
In Cole Hamels and Brett Myers, the Phils have a 1-2 punch to rival any in the division. At 24, Hamels is one of the game’s top young stars, a lefty with three strikeout pitches and a quiet confidence that says, “Give me the ball and I’ll show you the way.” Hamels has yet to make it through a season without a trip to the disabled list. If he stays healthy, he stands a good chance of becoming the Phils’ first 20-game winner since Steve Carlton in 1982. Myers also has big-win potential. He’s back in the starting rotation after spending a year at closer. Myers has a strong four-pitch mix and should be able to give the team 200-plus innings, which would ease the bullpen’s workload. After Hamels and Myers, there is a drop-off. Kyle Kendrick was a godsend last year, winning 10 games after coming up from Double-A in June. However, he has made only 20 big league starts and could still experience growing pains. Veteran Jamie Moyer is an invaluable innings-eater and mentor for the rest of the staff, but he’s 45 and pitched to a 5.65 ERA after May 14 last season. Adam Eaton, whose 6.29 ERA was the worst among big league starters in 2007, will begin the season as the No. 5 starter.

Statistician
892	Runs scored by the Phillies last season, the most in the NL.
4.73	Team ERA last season, the second-highest ever for an NL playoff team.
8.69	Cole Hamels’ strikeouts per nine innings in 2007, third-best in NL.
14-23	Record in one-run games in 2007.
25	Times Chase Utley was hit by pitches in 2007, most in the majors.
.372	Utley's batting average at home last season.
11.3	At-bats per home run for Ryan Howard last season, tops in the NL.

Bullpen 
The trio of Myers, Tom Gordon and J.C. Romero was outstanding in nailing down the division late last season. November trade acquisition Brad Lidge takes over for Myers as closer. Lidge struggled with consistency the last two seasons in Houston but still has a power arm and could benefit from a change of scenery. He should be fully recovered from arthroscopic knee surgery in February by Opening Day. Much is riding on Lidge. If he struggles, the Phils could be in trouble, because Gordon, who is next in line, is 40 and admitted to pitching with a tear in his shoulder last season. Gordon’s workload must be monitored closely, but he can still be effective when pain-free. Romero was brilliant last season, quieting the difficult seventh- and eighth-inning trouble spots that had hurt the team in the past. His work earned him a three-year contract extension. Ryan Madson must come back strong after missing significant time with a shoulder injury. Chad Durbin and Clay Condrey will help in relief. Hard-throwing Scott Mathieson, back from Tommy John surgery, could help as the season unfolds.

Middle Infield 
It might be the best in the business. Rollins and Utley are 29 and locked up with long-term contracts. Rollins is coming off an MVP season in which he won a Gold Glove at shortstop and had 212 hits, 139 runs and 94 RBIs out of the leadoff spot. He has scored at least 115 runs in four straight seasons. Utley, the best offensive second baseman in the game, finished third in the league in hitting (.332) and doubles (48) and might have won the MVP if he hadn’t missed a month with a broken hand.

Corners 
Despite a slow start, Howard followed up his MVP year of 2006 with another powerful season. He was second in the league with 47 homers and drove in 136 runs while finishing fifth in MVP voting. Imagine how lethal he would have been if his batting average hadn’t slipped 45 points, from .313 to .268, and he hadn’t set a major league record with 199 strikeouts. Regardless, Howard remains an elite player on whom a championship can be built. The Phils aren’t so fortunate at third base. Efforts to sign Mike Lowell failed, but the Phillies convinced former Giant Pedro Feliz to sign. Last year, Phillies third basemen had an OPS of .688, the lowest in the NL; Feliz’ OPS was .708. 

Outfield 
The decision not to re-sign centerfielder Aaron Rowand, a major 2007 contributor, has resulted in some big changes. Shane Victorino, a speedster with a big arm, moves from right field to center. Victorino has consistently improved since joining the Phillies as a Rule 5 pick in 2005, and team officials believe he’s ready for an expanded role. The Phils will be looking for some pop from free agent signee Geoff Jenkins in right field, but Jayson Werth will continue to see significant time at that position and in left field as Pat Burrell’s defensive replacement. Burrell enters the final season of his six-year contract, and while he hasn’t lived up to the hype that came with being the No. 1 pick a decade ago, he has averaged 30 homers and 103 RBIs the last three seasons.

Catching 
The Phils have good, if unspectacular, depth at this position. Carlos Ruiz took over the top job last year, bonded well with the pitching staff, made only two errors and threw out 25 percent of would-be base-stealers. Backup Chris Coste swings a good bat and is capable of starting 50 games. Meanwhile, Jason Jaramillo continues to develop at Triple-A and is ready to step in for regular duty if needed.

Bench 
Newcomer So Taguchi can play all three outfield positions, and he hit .406 (13 for 32) to lead the NL in pinch-hitting last season. Werth can provide some pop and defense off the bench when he’s not starting. Coste is capable of having good at-bats late in games. Eric Bruntlett, who came over from Houston with Lidge, is a scrappy utility infielder and lifetime .308 (16-for-52) pinch-hitter. Greg Dobbs and Wes Helms are quality hitters and can play first or third.

Statline All-Time Strikeouts per 9 Innings in Career Minimum 300 games pitched
1.	Brad Lidge	12.59
2.	Rob Dibble	12.17
3.	Francisco Rodriguez	11.97
4.	Billy Wagner	11.84
5.	Matt Mantei	11.05

Management 
Charlie Manuel held things together through a shaky start, waves of bad pitching and a host of injuries last year. Manuel finished second in NL Manager of the Year voting and earned a two-year contract extension, which was welcomed by his players. In Manuel’s three seasons, the Phillies are an NL-best 133–89 after the All-Star break. General manager Pat Gillick, who says he will retire at season’s end, has made good in-season moves (Moyer in 2006, Romero in 2007) the last two years. He might need to make a couple more this season.

Final Analysis 
Rollins has set 100 wins as the goal. An 11-game improvement will be difficult, but this team is capable of defending its division title. Even without Rowand’s 89 RBIs, the Phils should score enough runs to be dangerous. An upgrade at third would help, and the rotation might benefit from another good arm. Good health is crucial because there isn’t much depth.

---

Difference Maker

The acquisition of Brad Lidge could help on two fronts. It gives the team a tested closer with high-end stuff. It also allows Brett Myers to return to the rotation, where he had spent his career before filling a void at closer last year. The Phils were desperate for a big arm to tandem with Cole Hamels. In Houston, Lidge teetered in and out at closer the last two seasons, but his opponents’ batting average (.219) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.8) show that his stuff is still top-notch. He needs to get off to a good start, build confidence and quickly get Phillies fans on his side.

---

Beyond the Box Score

Big finish
Yes, the Mets suffered a historic collapse and blew a seven-game lead with 17 to play to open the door for the Phillies to win the NL East on the final day last season. But the Phils took care of business down the stretch. They finished 13–4 and were 12–6 on the season against the Mets, including 7–0 over the final five weeks. “If they win one of those games, we don’t win it,” manager Charlie Manuel said.

A rivalry, finally
Despite being only a little more than 100 miles apart, the Phillies and Mets have never had a tremendous rivalry. That seems to be changing. Jimmy Rollins spiced things up with his “team to beat” boast before last season, and the teams finished a game apart atop the NL East. A rivalry is predicated on both teams being good, and the Phillies and Mets haven’t been good at the same time very often. In the Mets’ 46 seasons, they and the Phillies have had winning records in the same season only seven times: 2007, 2006, 2005, 2001, 1986, 1976 and 1975. Before last season, only twice (1986 and 2006) had they finished one-two in the NL East, and those races weren’t close. The Mets won by 21.5 games in 1986 and by 12 in 2006.

Nice job, teach
First base coach Davey Lopes had a huge impact in his first season with the club. Lopes, who swiped 557 bases during a stellar playing career, oversaw base running and outfield play. Under his tutelage, the Phillies stole 138 bases and were caught only 19 times. That 87.9 success rate was the best in major league history. Phillies outfielders also led the NL with 39 assists.

He’s No. 1
Unless Roger Clemens or Julio Franco surface, 45-year-old lefty Jamie Moyer will be the oldest player in the majors this season. He has 230 wins, 196 coming after he was released three times in three years in the early 1990s.

Catching the dream
Popular backup catcher Chris Coste has written an inspirational book about his 11-year journey to the major leagues. The 33-Year-Old Rookie (Ballantine Books) is due out during spring training.

The flyin’ Hawaiian
The Phillies honored Hawaii native Shane Victorino with his own bobblehead last summer. He is depicted wearing a lei, a grass skirt and playing a ukulele.

Del.icio.us | Digg it | Athlon Sports RSS Feeds