New York Mets 2008 Preview

The Mets must prove they can recover from one of baseball’s worst collapses ever. The Mets fell apart down the stretch, blowing a seven-game lead with 17 to play and putting heat on manager Willie Randolph for 2008. He’ll need a creaky rotation to come through, but his club almost certainly will contend in a weak National League.

Rotation 
It turns out that something good came from the Mets’ crushing loss in the 2006 NLCS: they learned that John Maine and Oliver Perez really were dependable starters. The pitchers built on their playoff success by both going 15–10 with earned run averages below 4.00. The Mets are depending heavily on them, because veterans Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez are injury risks. When healthy, both are extremely intelligent in how they use their stuff, thriving on mind games by attacking hitters with various angles and speeds. When they’re not hobbling off the mound or grabbing their arms in pain, they’re a joy to watch, and as a future Hall of Famer, Martinez could summon the stuff to lift a staff. Of course, the addition of Johan Santana over the winter provides the strongest lift. Santana, a perennial Cy Young candidate (and two-time winner) in the American League, is one of the favorites to win the award in the NL this season. His presence immediately takes the pressure off Martinez and Hernandez to pitch through pain or adversity.

Statistician
2	Seasons for Endy Chavez without an error.
5	Trips to the disabled list for Moises Alou in the last three years.
.225	Carlos Delgado's average at Shea Stadium.
377	Strikeouts for Pedro Martinez in 377.2 innings as a Met.
78	Steals for Jose Reyes in 2007, most in the majors since Marquis Grissom in 1992.
.206	Left-handed hitters' average against Oliver Perez.
5.11	Mets' team ERA in September
2.27	Aaron Heilman's ERA after the All-Star break.
0	Teams in baseball history to blow a 7-game lead with 17 to play, before the '07 Mets.

Bullpen 
Yes, it was a mistake to trade Heath Bell before last season. But the bullpen that remains isn’t that bad, especially with Guillermo Mota gone. No manager can match up the way Randolph can, with lefty specialists Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis, who combined to allow only one homer to a left-handed hitter in 188 at-bats last season. Aaron Heilman may never live down his Yadier Molina moment, but he recovered from losing Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS to have a stellar season, pitching in 81 games, a record for a Mets righthander. Jorge Sosa adds depth in the middle innings, and whatever the Mets get from Duaner Sanchez will be a bonus. Closer Billy Wagner ripped Randolph and pitching coach Rick Peterson late last season for their handling of the bullpen, but the Mets will live with Wagner’s outspoken nature as long as he remains one of the game’s elite.

Middle Infield 
When Luis Castillo batted behind the speedy Juan Pierre in 2003, they motored the Marlins to a championship. The addition of Castillo to Jose Reyes didn’t help the Mets as much last season, but the team’s fold was not Castillo’s fault; he hit .316 in September and made only two errors in 50 games after his trade from Minnesota. A chronic knee problem has limited his speed, but he still hits around .300 every year. In Reyes, Castillo has a double-play partner who thrills and infuriates fans. He runs like he’s playing in the 1980s, with 99 stolen base attempts last season, and he’s improved his plate discipline and cut his errors every season. But he still fails to run out grounders sometimes, and he hit .156 in the fateful, final week of ’07. Still, the Mets are committed to building around Reyes, and they refused all trade offers for him last winter.

Corners 
As the rest of the Mets were fading, third baseman David Wright was surging down the stretch. He hit .372 with 12 homers after July 31 and captured his first Gold Glove. Wright’s star simply continues to rise, with an average that has improved in each of his four major league seasons. His .416 on-base percentage ranked fourth in the NL, and he set career highs in runs, homers and walks. First baseman Carlos Delgado, meanwhile, went the other way. At 35, Delgado had 24 homers and 87 runs batted in, the lowest full-season marks of his career. Once a sure bet for 100 walks, Delgado walked only 52 times last season for a pedestrian OBP of .333. The Mets owe Delgado $16 million this season with a $4 million buyout. But they wouldn’t mind having a right-handed hitter they could trust to spell Delgado at first base. The Mets love Olmedo Saenz’ bat, but his woeful defense would affect the entire infield.

Outfield 
Few, if any, center fielders give their teams as much production as Carlos Beltran, who has earned Gold Gloves the last two seasons as well. He’s a force from both sides of the plate, and he’s still only 30 years old. When healthy, left fielder Moises Alou is one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. Lethal in the clutch, he hit .402 last September, has a .354 career average with the bases loaded and has 19 RBIs in 19 career games in the LCS and World Series. But he’s got to stay on the field. A hernia will keep the left fielder out until some time in May. New right fielder Ryan Church could be coming into his own at age 29, and he’s a major upgrade defensively over Shawn Green. He also is a .340 career hitter at Shea Stadium, and with 43 doubles last season, he could be in for a homer spike away from RFK Stadium.

Catching 
The Mets dumped Paul Lo Duca just before his name was plastered all over the Mitchell Report, turning to Brian Schneider, a light hitter who is considered a superb handler of a pitching staff. Schneider, who batted just .202 with runners in scoring position, will be helped by Ramon Castro, one of the best backups in the majors.

Bench 
The Mets have a nice mix on the bench, with a proven pinch-hitter in Marlon Anderson, a solid backup catcher in Castro and, most important, an everyday-caliber left fielder in Endy Chavez to back up the injury-prone Alou. Veteran Damion Easley is a versatile pro with power who understands his role.

Statline Highest AVG by 40-Year-Old Minimum 350 PA
1.	Cap Anson, 1894	.388
2.	Ty Cobb, 1927	.357
3.	Sam Rice, 1930	.349
4.	Moises Alou, 2007	.341
5.	Cap Anson, 1895	.335

Management 
The honeymoon is over for Randolph, who is under pressure to lead the Mets to the World Series in his fourth year on the job. General manager Omar Minaya shuffled Randolph’s coaching staff at the All-Star break last year, and as much credit as Randolph gets for being a winner, he could not instill that killer instinct into his players late last season. Minaya didn’t help much, trading away pieces the Mets could have used, like pitchers Brian Bannister and Bell. Last winter, Minaya acted boldly to fill two holes with one trade, dealing Lastings Milledge to Washington for Schneider and Church, and then landed the biggest prize of the offseason in Santana. Minaya is more secure than Randolph, who now has a legitimate ace, so he might not survive another disappointing finish.

Final Analysis 
It’s easy to forget that the Mets were 20 games over .500 last Sept. 14. Clearly, they’re talented enough to win, with deep pockets and an aggressive general manager who will try to add a piece if they need it. Santana is one of the greats, and with him leading the pitching staff, the Mets have the offensive thunder to make up for the shame of 2007

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Difference Maker

The signing of Pedro Martinez may be considered a success no matter what happens this season, because his addition in 2005 elevated the Mets back to relevance and respectability after a few shabby seasons early in this decade. But Martinez, in the final year of his contract at age 36, must re-establish himself as an ace after rotator-cuff surgery in 2006. He’s pitched only 160.2 innings the last two years, and the Mets need him to fill the 200 innings that left when Tom Glavine returned to Atlanta. Martinez is a craftsman, a showman and a Hall of Famer, but he needs one last hurrah for the Mets to have a chance.

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Beyond the Box Score

Choke’s on them During the final 17 games, the Mets went 5–12, allowing the most runs in the majors (115) while committing 22 errors. They went 1–6 in their final seven games, all against teams with losing records, and became the first team ever to blow a seven-game lead with 17 to play.

Common name, uncommon start Joe Smith began his career with a 15.1-inning scoreless streak, setting a Mets record for scoreless innings at the start of a career. He also became the first Mets rookie ever to pitch in at least 10 games in April.

Runs, fields, hits with power David Wright became the 10th player in history to win a Gold Glove in the same season in which he had 30 homers and 30 steals. The others: Willie Mays (1957), Bobby Bonds (1973), Dale Murphy (1983), Eric Davis (1987), Barry Bonds (1990, ‘92, ‘96 and ‘97), Barry Larkin (1996), Larry Walker (1997), Raul Mondesi (1997), Jimmy Rollins (2007).

Old-timer’s Year The Mets set a major league record for most 40-year-old players used in a season with Sandy Alomar Jr., Moises Alou, Jeff Conine, Julio Franco, Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez. The 1947 White Sox were the only other team with as many as five. Only Alou and Hernandez are back for 2007.
Hello, old foe The Mets will open and close the 2008 season against the team that knocked them out of playoff contention on the final day: the Florida Marlins.

A force when healthy Every full month that Moises Alou was with the team, he batted better than .330: April, .349; August, .330; September, .402. He also hit seven of his 13 homers on the first pitch of an at-bat.
Bring your appetite Outdated Shea Stadium has two restaurants seating a total of 528 people. Citi Field, which opens in 2009, will have four restaurants with seating for 3,134 hungry fans.

Losing his golden touch After a series of moves that helped the Mets win the division in 2006, GM Omar Minaya made some duds that hurt the team last season. He traded starter Brian Bannister to Kansas City for reliever Ambiorix Burgos, and the Mets lacked rotation depth. He also gave away Heath Bell to San Diego, and Bell become one of baseball’s premier setup men.

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