Florida Marlins 2008 Preview

Five seasons. Incredibly — and sadly — that’s how long the Dontrelle Willis/Miguel Cabrera era lasted in South Florida. How successfully the Marlins move forward after completing that eight-player blockbuster trade with the Tigers at the winter meetings will depend largely on the pieces they brought back, especially Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin.

Rotation 
Picking an Opening Day starter used to be so easy for the Marlins. For three straight years it was Josh Beckett. Then, after Beckett was traded to Boston in 2005, Willis took the ball the past two years. Now that the D-Train is a Tiger? Well, it’s anybody’s guess. Josh Johnson or Anibal Sanchez would have been fine choices, but both are coming off season-ending surgeries. Johnson will probably miss all of 2008 following Tommy John surgery, while Sanchez, the no-hit marvel from 2006, could miss the first few months due to shoulder surgery. That leaves sinkerballer Sergio Mitre, who faded after a strong first half, and combustible lefty Scott Olsen as the top returning options. But a forearm strain will have Mitre on the shelf until as late as June. Miller will probably be eased into his new surroundings before assuming a more prominent role after struggling last year with the Tigers. Mark Hendrickson has earned a place in the middle of the pack. At the back of the rotation, the Marlins figure to return Ricky Nolasco, who missed large chunks of last year due to elbow woes, and tall Dutch righthander Rick VandenHurk, who showed flashes but still needs to add significant polish.

Statistician
173	Rick VandenHurk’s rank in ERA (6.83) among all big league pitchers with at least 80 innings in 2007.
5.58	ERA for Marlins starters in 2007, worst in the majors.
2	Times in their brief history the Marlins have finished last in consecutive years.
.889	Save percentage for closer Kevin Gregg, who didn’t assume the role until May.
1.46	Second-half ERA in 25 appearances for lefty reliever Taylor Tankersley.

Bullpen
Kevin Gregg doesn’t hit triple digits with his fastball. He doesn’t come out of the bullpen breathing fire and strutting around to a personalized theme song. All the Marlins’ closer does is throw one quality strike after another. That formula was enough to secure the high-profile job for Gregg after the unfortunate experiment with Jorge Julio blew up in management’s face. While Gregg blew only four of 31 save chances after taking over in mid-May, young flamethrower Matt Lindstrom emerged as a valuable setup option. Taylor Tankersley overcame some early shoulder and command issues to reclaim his place as the top lefty out of the Marlins’ bullpen.

Middle Infield 
Had the Marlins not been a last-place team, Hanley Ramirez doubtless would have finished much higher than 10th in the National League Most Valuable Player voting. His numbers in most categories compared closely, if not favorably, with NL winner Jimmy Rollins, and the Marlins shortstop just missed a rare 30-homer, 50-double, 50-steal season. Ramirez still must tighten up his defense after averaging 25 errors the past two seasons. Dan Uggla failed to repeat his All-Star showing of his rookie breakthrough, but he still managed to bump his homer total from 27 to 31 even as his average dropped 37 points. The Marlins would like to see him cut down on his strikeouts, but that becomes less of an issue if he drops down in the batting order after spending the bulk of his first two seasons in the No. 2 hole.

Corners
Aaron Boone has moved on to Washington after a one-year stopover, but his services probably weren’t that necessary anyway. That’s because first baseman Mike Jacobs showed he could stand in against lefthanders as well as righties, essentially erasing the need for a platoon partner. Jacobs, who has 30-homer power, isn’t nearly as bad defensively as typically portrayed either. Now that Cabrera has been dealt, new acquisitions Jorge Cantu and Jose Castillo are the top candidates for third base. Castillo will most likely get the lion’s share of at-bats.

Outfield 
That gaping hole in center field should soon be filled. The big question is how much more seasoning (if any) Maybin needs before taking over the spot for good. The Marlins appear prepared to turn the position over to their young star. Josh Willingham returns for a third straight year as the everyday left fielder. His solid approach and professionalism make him a first-rate example for a clubhouse filled with talented-but-immature kids. Jeremy Hermida had his share of problems in right field during the first half, but once he got his legs under him he took off, both at the plate and defensively.

Catching 
Free-swinging Miguel Olivo was non-tendered after two years of streaky contributions and head-scratching decisions behind the plate. In his place is the combination of newly acquired Mike Rabelo and holdover Matt Treanor. Rabelo, a switch-hitter, came over from the Tigers in the Willis/Cabrera deal. A late bloomer, he has a great work ethic and strong receiving skills. The big problem with Rabelo is his bat, which has never been much to talk about. Likewise, Treanor does a great job handling pitchers and doing all the little things defensively. However, he is a lifetime .236 hitter who seems to profile better as a backup.

Bench
Alejandro De Aza might have seized the starting center field job if not for a serious ankle injury suffered in the season’s first two weeks. He remains an intriguing extra piece at the very worst due to his speed and slashing style at the plate. Cody Ross is also a decent option in the outfield if one of the starters falters. Alfredo Amezaga can handle the middle infield spots in a pinch as well as play in the outfield. Castillo, too, can handle second and short if he doesn’t beat out Cantu at third base. He played 145 games at second for the Pirates in 2006.

Statline Most Home Runs by a 50-Steal Man
1.	Eric Davis, 1987	37
2.	Barry Bonds, 1990	33
3.	Hanley Ramirez, 2007	29
4t.	Rickey Henderson, 1986	28
4t.	Rickey Henderson, 1990	28

Management 
Owner Jeffrey Loria gets pounded for keeping the payroll low while pulling $30 million-plus out of the revenue-sharing till each year, but the man has shown uncommon loyalty to his front office. At the end of the last-place nightmare that was the 2007 season, Larry Beinfest was promoted to president of baseball operations, while Michael Hill was bumped up from assistant general manager to titular GM. Manager Fredi Gonzalez had a rocky debut, but much of that had to do with the injuries that ripped apart his roster, especially the rotation. His honeymoon period probably gets extended at least another season in the wake of the Willis/Cabrera deal with the Tigers.

Final Analysis 
With a payroll expected to again fall in the $15 million range — lowest in baseball for the second time in three years — 2008 figures to be no more than a year of retrenchment. A second straight last-place finish seems likely, with the Nationals moving into a new stadium and the rest of the National League East living in the high-rent district. The Marlins just hope to hold things together long enough to be competitive when they move into a new stadium, probably in 2011. But first a stadium plan needs to gain official approval from long-wary South Florida politicians.

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Difference Maker

Everyone from rival scouts to his teammates and employers agrees pitcher Scott Olsen has the repertoire to win 15 or more games. Something, however, always seems to hold the lanky lefty back. More often than not, he is his own biggest enemy. Whether it’s on-field meltdowns or off-field legal troubles, Olsen has done himself no favors. With former mentor Dontrelle Willis gone to Detroit, it should be interesting to see how Olsen responds. He’ll either step up and lead a staff in dire need of his 200-inning potential, or he’ll crumble in the face of the challenge and probably get himself traded.

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Beyond the Box Score

Remember me?
Marlins GM Michael Hill has known newly acquired center fielder Cameron Maybin since the latter was an 11-year-old batboy with the Class A Asheville (N.C.) Tourists. As the Rockies’ then-farm director, Hill made several trips a year into Asheville to watch that club’s affiliate. He got a chance to observe Maybin in action before and during games. The kid put on some stunning power displays for his age.

Huge in Holland
Rick VandenHurk didn’t light the world on fire as a Marlins rookie, but he certainly kept the folks in The Netherlands up late. Everyone in his immediate and extended family got the mlb.com package in order to keep up with his exploits, and the kids at the baseball academy his father, Wim, helps run got the fever as well. The younger VandenHurk, who grew up idolizing fellow Dutchman Bert Blyleven, has become the first Dutch pitcher in the majors since the former 287-game winner.

Wiley veteran
After guiding the Marlins’ staff in 2005, Mark Wiley was the choice of most in the organization to return as pitching coach. However, incoming manager Joe Girardi failed to return repeated phone calls from Wiley, who eventually joined the Rockies as a special-assignment scout. Two years later, Wiley is back with the Marlins in his old job as the replacement for Rick Kranitz, now with the Orioles.

Lackluster leather
The Marlins’ mantra under this administration has been “pitching, speed and defense,” but the last part of that equation has been noticeably absent the past two years. They committed a majors-worst 137 errors in 2007 after finishing third-worst in that category the previous year.

Swing and a miss
That giant fanning sound you heard most nights at Dolphin Stadium last year wasn’t necessarily the air-conditioners humming on the mostly empty suite level. It also could have been the sound of Marlins bats swinging and missing at a record pace. Their 1,332 combined strikeouts were the most in the majors and a franchise worst as well.

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