Toronto Blue Jays 2008 Preview

This will be the biggest season of GM J.P. Ricciardi’s tenure, after a status quo offseason resulting from his firm belief that his lineup, when healthy, can compete with the beasts of the AL East. He’s sold ownership, which gave him a contract extension through 2010. Selling a skeptical fan base is another story. Ricciardi has used up much of the capital he accumulated in the early days of his reign, and he’s trying to put the team over the top at a time when a payroll in the lower-$90 million range can’t buy what it used to, nor does it guarantee the health of vulnerable specimens such as A.J. Burnett and the newly acquired Scott Rolen.

Rotation 
Roy Halladay is a prototypical ace. He led the major leagues in complete games (seven) and showed his grittiness by missing only three weeks with acute appendicitis. Finally, he has some depth behind him. The Blue Jays believe Burnett is poised for a big year, in part because he can opt out of his five-year contract after this season. The team expects he will opt out and hopes it at least means Burnett will be less prone to feel every ache and pain. Dustin McGowan finally settled on a routine to control his Type 2 diabetes to have a breakout year. The best is still to come. Shaun Marcum’s control suggests he’ll be better than a No. 4 starter, while Casey Janssen, who likely would have been the fifth starter after dominating out of middle relief, will miss the season after undergoing labrum surgery. Jesse Litsch will begin the season in the No. 5 spot. The Blue Jays have some minor league depth, but the fact they tried to trade for Tim Lincecum over the winter suggests the team believes it still needs one more power arm. The road to the playoffs goes through the Bronx and Fenway Park, and the ability of the Yankees and Red Sox to accumulate cost-effective young pitching from within did not go unnoticed by the Blue Jays.

Statistician
1	Earned runs allowed by closer Jeremy Accardo in 16.2 innings against the Red Sox and Yankees.
3	Number of winning road trips for the Blue Jays in 2007, out of 12.
5	Consecutive seasons in which attendance has increased at the Rogers Centre.
6	Consecutive starts (from Aug. 14 to Sept. 10) in which Roy Halladay pitched at least eight innings.

Bullpen 
B.J. Ryan is expected to be ready to open the season after missing almost the entire year with Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays believe his bread-and-butter slider can be just as effective as it was prior to the surgery. Jeremy Accardo, who filled in as closer last year, provides insurance in case Ryan’s recovery hits any kind of bump. The Jays plan to ease Ryan into the season, so Accardo will share the closer role at the outset of the season. Accardo figures to maintain his role as the Blue Jays’ primary setup man once Ryan is completely healthy. Scott Downs, one of the most effective left-handed relievers in the AL last year, will want to cash in on free agency after this year. That should give him plenty of motivation. Brian Wolfe, Brian Tallet and, to a lesser degree, Jason Frasor have the confidence of manager John Gibbons.

Middle Infield 
David Eckstein is the latest candidate to fill the Blue Jays’ gaping hole at shortstop. He’ll lead off, with defensive whiz John McDonald spelling him, particularly when Halladay starts. The Blue Jays believe Aaron Hill is a future Gold Glover — and the future could arrive in ’08. Hill led AL second basemen in assists per nine innings (3.57) and was second in total chances (818) and double plays (114). In addition, he could emerge as a power threat after leading the AL in hits (43) in September.

Corners 
Forget Ryan’s elbow injury. It was the broken right hand suffered by the team’s best left-handed hitter, Lyle Overbay, that was the most significant injury in 2007. The Blue Jays are a right-hand-heavy team, and despite Matt Stairs’ impressive season, Overbay had emerged as the key to Gibbons’ batting order in 2006. Overbay batted only .226 after coming back and had the pins removed from the hand on Sept. 25. The team hopes there is no long-term damage. The jury is out on the oft-injured Rolen, whether his shoulder has truly mended and whether he is still the player who finished fourth in the 2004 National League MVP balloting. In 112 games last year, Rolen batted .265 with only eight home runs in 392 at-bats.

Outfield 
Alex Rios’ improved work ethic has stardom in his grasp after a season in which he led the team in runs, hits and extra-bases. Like Hill, he’ll be able to post even better offensive numbers if players such as Overbay and Rolen are healthy. He’s an important component in the offense because of his foot speed and ability to make things happen on the basepaths. Center fielder Vernon Wells suffered through his worst offensive season after signing a huge contract extension, but he did have a shoulder injury (torn labrum). There’s no reason he won’t return to form. Nobody close to him believes the contract had anything to do with the off-year. Stairs and Shannon Stewart may share left field. Adam Lind has spent two seasons as the Blue Jays’ top positional prospect and could push for at-bats.

Catching 
Gregg Zaun has been the No. 1 catcher by default since showing up in 2004. He showed some toughness last year by missing only six weeks with a broken right thumb and came back to play in 110 games. His switch-hitting bat and willingness to dig in for long at-bats make him valuable on this righty-heavy team. Curtis Thigpen and Robinzon Diaz are prospects who are knocking on the door, but in the meantime Rod Barajas gets first crack at the backup spot. The Blue Jays tried to sign Paul Lo Duca over the winter, so they clearly don’t believe this is a position of strength.

DH/Bench 
Frank Thomas can tie Hall of Famers Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Willie Mays for the Major League mark with one more season of 25 home runs and 95 runs batted in. He is second with 11 such seasons after hitting 26 homers and knocking in 95 runs in his first season in Toronto. Marco Scutaro will be used in the outfield as well as the infield, as the Blue Jays look to leverage his considerable bench skills. McDonald is Halladay’s shortstop of choice. Either Stewart or Lind will be available when not starting.

Statline 2007 AL Stolen Bases Allowed by Non-Knuckleballer
1.	A.J. Burnett	31
2.	Dustin McGowan	29
3.	Jose Contreras	25
4.	Daniel Cabrera	24
4t.	Mike Mussina	24

Management 
Gibbons is on the shortest of leashes — think mid-May — and he’s not likely to survive a slow start. The Blue Jays believe he will be helped by the installation of details-oriented Brian Butterfield as bench coach and the effective demoting of Ernie Whitt, following a year in which the team twice messed up its lineup card, batting out of order on one occasion. Gary Denbo is the new hitting coach. This is the seventh year of Ricciardi’s tenure as GM. The pressure to win has never been as great, and there have been suggestions it’s the playoffs or bust.

Final Analysis 
As much as it pains the Blue Jays’ faithful, this team will never have as much money to spend as the Red Sox and Yankees. The Blue Jays will put a quality product on the field and make the moves necessary (within reason) to remain competitive, but it will be extremely difficult to finish any better than third in the AL East in the foreseeable future.

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Difference Maker

The first prototypical leadoff hitter the Blue Jays have had in some time, David Eckstein could be the spark the lineup sorely lacked in 2007 when injuries and inconsistency forced manager John Gibbons to use nine different players in the leadoff spot. Eckstein’s on-base percentage from 2007 (.356) would have been among the best on the Blue Jays, and while he isn’t a burner, he does have the type of savvy on the basepaths this team has lacked. But there’s a catch: John McDonald, who headed into the winter thinking he was the incumbent at short, is hugely popular. How will he handle Eckstein’s presence?

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Beyond the Box Score

Loonie Tunes The real MVP for the 2007 Toronto Blue Jays might have been the loonie, as the Canadian dollar is affectionately known, since it reached par with the U.S. dollar on Sept. 20 and in November was actually worth 10 cents more than the U.S. dollar. That had a huge impact on the Blue Jays’ bottom line. The Blue Jays operate in U.S. funds — all uniformed personnel and some front office personnel are paid in U.S. money and the club pays road expenses in U.S. money, while taking in Canadian money in terms of ticket sales, concessions, merchandise and local television and radio.

Who’s at short? How difficult has it been for the Toronto Blue Jays to fill the shortstop’s position since GM J.P. Ricciardi traded Alex Gonzalez in the winter of 2001? Consider that when David Eckstein starts for the team on Opening Day, he will be the 17th different shortstop the Jays have used in a game since the Gonzalez deal.

Stop thief Aaron Hill has quietly developed into one of the best young all-around players in the American League. He took a quantum leap forward last year defensively and also showed some moxie when he became only the second Blue Jays player to accomplish a straight steal of home on May 29 against the New York Yankees.

Big company for Big Hurt  Frank Thomas is one of only four players in MLB history with a .300 career average, 500 home runs, 1,500 runs batted in, 1,000 runs scored and 1,500 walks. The others? Ted Williams, Babe Ruth and Mel Ott.

Hot streaks  Shaun Marcum posted a couple of highly impressive streaks during the 2007 season. Marcum pitched 10 consecutive no-hit innings from May 13 to May 19, tying Dave Stieb and David Cone for the club standard. Then, from July 23 to Aug. 4, Marcum went 89 batters between bases on balls, the second-longest streak in baseball in 2007.

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