Minnesota Twins 2008 Preview

The Twins cited stability and cohesiveness as reasons for promoting Bill Smith from assistant general manager to replace the renowned Terry Ryan, who resigned from the top post to spend more time scouting, but those were hardly hallmarks of Smith’s first winter on the job. Center fielder Torii Hunter ended 15 years in the organization by signing with the Angels. Smith began his tenure by trading top pitching prospect Matt Garza and shortstop Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay for Delmon Young. He followed that up with the blockbuster trade of ace Johan Santana to the Mets making this an offseason of cataclysmic change for the Twins.

Rotation 
With a trade of Santana and the health of phenom Francisco Liriano in question, the Twins’ rotation was as messy-looking this winter as a dugout floor after an extra-inning game. An optimist could project Liriano’s return to the dominating form he displayed as a rookie (highly unlikely in the short term, considering Tommy John surgery usually requires a couple of years of readjustment). A pessimist could see the trade leaving the Twins with a remarkably young and inexperienced rotation filled with the likes of Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser and Nick Blackburn. A realist will see Baker, Bonser, Slowey and veteran Livan Hernandez filling out the rotation until Liraino is strong enough to take regualr turns. Blackburn is the candidate most likely to fill in for Liriano.

Statistician
1	Losing seasons for the Twins since 2000.
4	Central division titles for the Twins since 2002.
15	Years in the Twins’ organization for former first-round draft pick Torii Hunter, who signed with the Angels this offseason.
1	Number of Twins’ starting infielders who will be the same on Opening Day 2008 as they were on Opening Day 2007 — first baseman Justin Morneau.
1	AL teams allowing fewer walks than the Twins last year (Cleveland).

Bullpen 
Joe Nathan is one of the five best closers in the game and although the Twins have never believed in spending much on closers, Nathan was given a contract extension through 2011 in the neighborhood of $11 million a year. Pat Neshek was dominant for the first half of last year before tiring. If he can improve his stamina, he could become one of the best setup men in the game. Dennys Reyes struggled to stay healthy in 2007. He dominates lefties when he’s right but has never had a long string of success outside the ’06 season. Jesse Crain will return from arm surgery; he could compete with Neshek for pitches in the eighth inning or become the seventh-inning man. Juan Rincon has been mentioned in trade rumors constantly for the last year. Matt Guerrier, once a mopup man, has become one of the most valued members of the staff.

Middle Infield 
The Twins view Adam Everett as a defensive upgrade over Bartlett and a more predictable offensive player than Nick Punto. Everett is an elite fielder. Brendan Harris, acquired from Tampa Bay in the Young deal, is the likely starting second baseman, with Punto shifting to the role of utility infielder. This could be an intriguing combination for a team that got precious little run production from the middle infield last year. Alexi Casilla is a wonderfully talented youngster who didn’t look ready for the big leagues last year; he’s still a potential leadoff hitter and stolen base champ in the future, but manager Ron Gardenhire still believes in the youngster for the future.

Corners 
Mike Lamb is a classic Twins’ signing — a promising player who has performed poorly enough in the past to lower his price. The Twins want him to provide a bridge to their lower-level third base prospects. Harris could play third, and Punto is an exceptional defensive third baseman who didn’t hit enough last year to keep the job. At first base, the Twins are hoping that Justin Morneau can be more disciplined at the plate, which allows him to use the whole field and makes him a tough out. Morneau is at his best when he trusts the hitters behind him and is willing to take a walk instead of swinging wildly.

Outfield 
With Hunter leaving, the Twins nabbed Carlos Gomez from the Mets in the Santana deal. Minnesota believes Gomez is the center fielder for years to come. Jason Pridie, acquired in the Young deal, was a possibility, along with supposed center fielder of the future Denard Span. The corners are set. In left, the Twins think Young could replace Hunter’s offense at a fraction of the price and become an eventual MVP candidate, although Young has shown poor plate discipline. In right, Michael Cuddyer has put together consecutive productive seasons. He was positioned to become an impact hitter last year, but a series of injuries forced him to play hurt and look ineffective for stretches last year.

Catching 
Joe Mauer may have been the best catcher in the game in 2006, when he won the batting title and set a new franchise standard for fielding at the position. In his other three big league seasons he has struggled to stay on the field, raising questions about his durability, and the ability of a gifted 6'5" athlete to play a position that requires crouching. If Mauer continues to struggle with his health, the Twins may have to consider moving him to a position less taxing on his knees. When Mauer is healthy, he and Mike Redmond, a team leader and savvy hitter, may be the best catching duo in the big leagues.

DH/Bench 
In the second half of ’07, Jason Kubel started to regain the stroke that once made him a hitting prospect on par with Mauer and Morneau. With the corner outfield spots loaded with bodies, Kubel and Craig Monroe could share time at DH and backing up in the outfield. Monroe slumped last year, making him a candidate for a classic Twins sign-’em-when-they’re-down acquisition. Punto is an exceptional fielder who can play any position in fair territory, and he can’t be as bad a hitter and bunter as he showed last year. But the Twins continue to lack quality pinch-hitters, and, other than Punto, quality pinch-runners.

Statline Lowest 2006-07 OPS Minimum 1,000 PA
1.	Nick Punto	642
2.	Jason Kendall	664
3.	Josh Barfield	677
4.	Marcus Giles	682
5.	Jose Lopez	684

Management 
Smith, like Ryan, is known for his relentless work ethic and loyalty, but unlike Ryan his background is in the business of baseball, not player development and evaluation. He demonstrated guts and aggressiveness in trading Garza and Bartlett for Young, who doesn’t fit the franchise’s Nice Guy image. The outcome of the Santana deal will ultimately seal his reputation.

Final Analysis 
The Twins are trying to rebuild quickly enough that they can be contenders when they open their new stadium in 2010. With multi-billionaire owner Carl Pohlad unwilling to compete with the giants of the game on the free agent market, the Twins continue to depend on their farm system, lower-rung free agents and trades to remain competitive in a division that appears to have passed them. The Twins are hoping the goodwill they’ve built up during their return to competitiveness this decade — and a slew of promising young players — will carry them through a rebuilding year or two.

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Difference Maker

If the Twins’ projections prove accurate, Delmon Young will replace Torii Hunter’s offense this year and give them three MVP-caliber players in the middle of their lineup in Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Young. Young served a suspension for hitting a minor league umpire with a bat, but the Twins prefer to focus on his willingness to play in 162 games last year with Tampa Bay. The Twins ranked next-to-last in the league in home runs and believe that Young will increase his production as he matures, although he’ll need to improve his plate discipline to maximize his power.

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Beyond the Box Score

Wrong Young For years, Twins players lobbied privately for their front office to trade for switch-hitting slugger Dmitri Young. This winter, the team traded for his younger brother, Delmon, marking the first time in memory the Twins have traded for a player of questionable reputation.

Mr. Cheap Twins owner Carl Pohlad’s wealth was valued at $3.1 billion by Forbes Magazine, making him the richest owner in baseball on the list. A trade of Johan Santana would reduce the Twins’ payroll to around $50 million.

How dare you  The Twins’ final offer to Santana was a four-year $80-million extension; those with knowledge of the negotiations said he was insulted by the offer.

Tough loss For three straight years, from 2005 through 2007, the Twins lost a major franchise personality before the beginning of the season. It was popular public address announcer Bob Casey in 2005, Kirby Puckett in 2006 and Hall of Fame broadcaster Herb Carneal in 2007.

Small ball = small number of wins So what’s the value of small ball again? The Twins finished second in the AL in stolen-base percentage, at 79 percent, one point behind the Red Sox, and sixth in sacrifice bunts, and yet they had their worst season since 2000.

Serious Power outage Five of the Twins’ presumptive starters in 2007 —catcher Joe Mauer, second baseman Luis Castillo, shortstop Jason Bartlett, third baseman Nick Punto and outfielder Rondell White — produced a grand total of 17 home runs among them. The Twins finished 29th out of 30 major league teams in home runs last season.

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