Around the NL: Report card time

After the first couple of months of the season, it’s probably time to assess how well teams are meetings their expectations. Here at AthlonSports.com, expectations may be a little different from those of fans, but we believe we have a fair national perspective. Without further ado, here’s AthlonSports.com’s end-of-May report card, distinguishing underachievers from overachievers.

NL East

New York
Athlon and fans alike expected great things from the Mets this season, out to prove their loss to St. Louis in the NLCS was more fluke than representative of their abilities. The Mets are on pace to win more than 100 games, so Willie Randolph’s team is right on target. Now they just have to find a way to win big games in October.

Philadelphia
Again, both Athlon and fans held the Phillies in high regard over the winter. Some publications even expected more from the Phils than the Mets. Their record tells us that they are on pace to break even. But considering the uptick recently after a disastrously slow start, we see a win total in the high 80s. That’s pretty good, but below our expectation of the low 90s. And that small difference will decide the NL wild card.

Atlanta
Since 1991 Braves’ fans have had extremely high expectations, and they have been satisfied (during the regular season, anyway). And even with Atlanta’s struggles last season, fans in Atlanta expect a playoff contender. Our sights for the Braves were tempered a bit, more like a win total in the high 80s. But a revived bullpen has Atlanta on pace for about 95 or 96, easily good enough to make the postseason.

Florida
We weren’t completely juiced by the surprise season the Fish had in 2006. We did expect a .500 season, however. Currently, we’re getting a shade less than expected.

Washington
Quite frankly we expected 100 losses, and the Nationals aren’t cooperating. Looks more like 97 losses.

                          Expected    Current
                          Win Total      Pace
New York                98          103
Philadelphia           92            81
Atlanta                     88            96
Florida                     81            77
Washington            62            65

NL Central

St. Louis
We understand that some key players are aging (David Eckstein and Jim Edmonds). We understand that the Cardinals lost some key starters. But face it, their rotation entering 2007 didn’t look any worse than it did entering 2006. Given the weak division, we expected another division title and at least 90 wins. What fans in St. Louis are getting is a scrap for second place and a struggle to win 75. Clearly this is the most underachieving team in the league.

Milwaukee
We were high on the Brewers last season when several injuries killed their season. And we expected 4-5 games over .500 this season. The Brew Crew is on pace to win 90, but recent struggles after a hot start may suggest that pace will slow. But the Brewers are rolling at a little higher level than we thought.

Houston
With losses to the rotation and a bullpen in a mess, even the addition of Carlos Lee didn’t have us singing the Astros’ praises too loud. However, we did anticipate a breakeven proposition. But the Astros with pitching trouble and Lance Berkman hitting below .240, will come closer to losing 100 than winning 81.

Chicago
While $300 million excited fans on the North Side, we didn’t drink the Kool-Aid. We knew what kind of player Mark DeRosa had been. We knew what kind of pitcher Jason Marquis had been. We knew how good their bullpen wasn’t. But we thought the Cubbies would eke out 77 or so wins. Not to be. After recent meltdowns during a six-game losing streak, Chicago is on pace to win less than 70. If you consider those folks in Chicagoland that thought they had a contender at Wrigley this season, the Cubs are a disaster. To us, their just a mild disappointment.

Cincinnati
We struggled with the Reds and Pirates for the cellar in the Central. We thought they’d each win about 66 games and be non-factors. The Reds the worst team in the league with absolutely no bullpen. They’ll lose 100 leaving Cincinnati red with anger.

Pittsburgh
Perhaps we should have known that the Pirates were in for an improvement given the way they finished last season. But expecting 66 wins and getting about 69 is pretty close over a 162-game season.

                          Expected    Current
                          Win Total      Pace
St. Louis               91               72
Milwaukee           86               91
Houston               81               67
Chicago               77               69
Cincinnati            66               61
Pittsburgh            66               69

NL West

Los Angeles
We felt good about the men in blue winning the West. In fact, we tabbed the Dodgers to take the NL pennant, defeating the Mets in the NLCS with solid starting pitching. For the regular season we saw a win total in the low 90s — about 92. Los Angels should win 95. If the Dodgers trade for a big bopper, they could chase 100 wins.

San Francisco
We disagreed with the rest of the free world on the Giants, and we were wrong — apparently. I guess we saw a rejuvenated Bonds, an ace in Barry Zito and veteran players all over the field. We thought the Giants would make a run at winning 90, maybe 88 games, for certain. Looks more like 80, maybe 77 would have been a better call. Fortunately for Giants’ fans, they were more realistic than us. As long as Barry hits No. 756 at home, the fans will have a successful season.

Arizona
We appreciate the fact the Diamondbacks have young, talented players and we believe in their future. But for the moment, we saw a .500 team at best. A recent surge has Arizona on pace for the mid-90s in wins. Easily one of two surprise teams in the NL.

San Diego
Speaking of surprise teams. We saw the Padres in decline this season. Some in the prognostication business agreed. The Padres’ players didn’t. On pace for 95 wins makes San Diego about 20 games better than we thought. We won’t doubt that pitching staff any longer. They’ve allowed 20 fewer runs than any other team in baseball.

Colorado
Rockies’ fans are tired of hearing the wait until next year (or the year after). But we thought Denver would be ringing with 2008 battle cries by June. We saw about 72 wins in the Rockies this season. Their pace suggests 77. While fans in Denver may not agree, we see that as progress, not pain.

                          Expected    Current
                          Win Total      Pace
Los Angeles        92               95
San Francisco     88               77
Arizona                 80               95
San Diego            76               95
Colorado              72               77

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